Oil export revenues are diluted by discounts

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Kommersant FM on the price’s dynamics for reference and Russian oil grades.

The OPEC+ decision also affects the market, Alexey Belogoryev explained.:

"The fall in world oil prices has been going on for quite a long time, supply is now significantly exceeding demand. This is largely due to the policy of OPEC+, which added almost 3 million barrels per day to the market in 2025. The supply increased about three times as much as the demand increased. This led to a drop in prices, and it will continue in 2026, as all experts predict. Most likely, the "corridor" for Brent and other reference grades will be $50-$60 per barrel. As for Urals, the huge discounts that are currently being applied to it are related to the consequences of sanctions against Rosneft and LUKOIL, first of all.

Indeed, the discounts are huge now, reaching $20-25 per barrel. If they mean the difference between the cost of oil at the port of departure, for example, on the Black Sea or the Baltic, and at the port of the importer, in India or China, then this is much more than it was before. So, back in September it was $12-15 maximum. But most likely, these discounts will decrease and return to about these values or maybe a little lower. But it will take several months. While the supply structure is being rebuilt, the supply of ships is increasing, because there is pressure on the so-called shadow fleet, which also complicates and increases the cost of transportation."