The velvet season opens for domestic gasoline transportation

Georgy Panaiotov, an expert at the Energy Department of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the GUDOK newspaper on the possible impact on the domestic market of the ban on gasoline exports return.

After the embargo is imposed, the volume of Russian gasoline exports by rail will be reduced to 7-8 thousand tons per day, Georgy Panaiotov estimated. For comparison, in June, an average of 15 thousand tons per day were exported by rail.

"Exports will be supported by supplies to the EAEU countries, South Ossetia, especially Mongolia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, which has become a key trend of past bans," the analyst notes.

At the same time, extrapolating last year's data to the current situation, Georgy Panaiotov predicts an increase in gasoline supplies by rail to the domestic market. According to his calculations, they will increase to 80-82 thousand tons per day (the June figure is 70 thousand tons per day). At the same time, the delivery time, which oil traders have recently complained about, may decrease by 5-9 days.

Marine gasoline exports through Russian ports will continue due to transit supplies from Belarus, which in July amounted to about 8 thousand tons per day.

As a result of the restrictions, wholesale gasoline prices are likely to decrease, primarily for AI-95. Yesterday, the price of it on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange broke another record, for the first time exceeding 75 thousand rubles per ton. According to Georgy Panaiotov, after the embargo is imposed, growth will first stop, and then a decline will begin, which may amount to 7-10%.

The expert also considers the introduction of a ban on the diesel fuel export premature, since, unlike gasoline, the diesel fuel market is more surplus-oriented and export-oriented.