"The parties have been trapped in a funnel where each subsequent action gives less room for maneuver"

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on Iran's threats to block the Bab El-Mandeb Strait to Business FM.

"Once, until October 2023, up to 12% of the world's oil supply went through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, after that the Houthis began firing at ships, and since then, by the end of February 2026, supplies had fallen by about three times. They have now increased due to the redirection of flows and mainly a sharp increase in Saudi Arabia's oil supplies to its Yanbu port in the Red Sea. Currently, it is estimated that about 4 million barrels per day of oil passes through this strait. That is, it is important, but still much less significant than the Strait of Hormuz. It is critically important, first of all, for Russian and Kazakh oil, since it fundamentally reduces the transport leverage for supplies to Asian countries. If the Houthis really start systematically shelling ships in this Strait, prices may rise by another 10-20 dollars per barrel, approximately in this range. This is not a disaster, frankly speaking, for the market, but it is an additional significant burden.

At the same time, it is important what happens to Russian and Kazakh oil, because until now, Russian vessels have been subject to a privileged regime of passage through this strait: the Houthis tried not to fire at Russian vessels. Whether this agreement will be maintained or not is also an important issue, and without that, the cost of transportation for Russia is significantly higher than for other countries. If an exception is made for Russia and Kazakhstan, it is likely that it will remain, then the situation will not be as critical as it looks. But this is certainly an additional problem, additional costs, and probably the main lever that Iran has not yet used in its confrontation with the United States and Arab countries."