Transit under fire: what will happen to Russian gas supplies to the EU

Forbes magazine published a column by Sergey Kondratiev, Deputy Head of the Economic Department of the Institute for Energy and Finance - "Transit under fire: what will happen to Russian gas supplies to the EU."

Partial suspension of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine in the coming months will not bring problems to consumers in Europe - demand will be quite low in summer. But if it is not possible to agree on the conditions of the Ukrainian gas transportation system operation before winter, the remaining transit capacities may not be enough, Sergey Kondratiev believes.

On May 10, the “GTS Operator of Ukraine” announced force majeure and the suspension of the transit of Russian gas through the Soyuz gas pipeline, which passes through the Sokhranovka gas measuring station (GIS). The reason was the loss by Ukraine of control over the territory where the station is located. And although Gazprom did not agree with the decision of the Ukrainian operator, transit along this route was stopped. Now Russian gas supplies through Ukraine go only through the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline, which remains under the full control of the Ukrainian side.

What will happen to the transit of Russian gas in the future, amid the following events: the suspension of supplies to Poland and Bulgaria and the nationalization of Gazprom-owned companies in Europe?