HomeAboutOur WorksPublic activityPublicationsDouble Whammy: how Russian Refineries survive sanctions and Drone attacks

Double Whammy: how Russian Refineries survive sanctions and Drone attacks

Kondratiev Sergey V. Principal Director on Economic Studies, Head of the Economic Department

Forbes published a column by Sergei Kondratiev, Principal Director on Economic Studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, on the consequences of attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian refineries.

Attacks on Russian refineries and oil depots have been going on almost since the first days of the "special operation". In 2023 and early 2024, the targets of the attacks were mainly export refineries: Ilsky, Novoshakhtinsky, Tuapse, Novatek Ust-Luga. In February-March 2024, the intensity of attacks increased, and large refineries supplying fuel for the domestic market were under attack. Among the most serious are attacks on Nizhny Novgorod (the AVT—6 primary oil refining unit was damaged), Ryazan (AVT-4 and AT-6) and Syzran (AVT-6) refineries. Due to the attacks on these plants, four primary oil refining plants with a total capacity of 76,000 tons had to be put into unplanned repairs. Is it a lot? Yes, a lot.

The daily capacity of Russian refineries for primary processing is 930,000 tons, that is, now, due to attacks by Ukrainian UAVs, 8.2% of primary processing capacities at technologically complex refineries operating mainly for the domestic market have been withdrawn for unplanned repairs.

Refiners have the opportunity to maneuver — by supplying semi-finished products from other, neighboring refineries to refineries where AVT were withdrawn for repair. Given the surplus of primary processing capacity, this may be the way out. But on the way to it, the industry will have to cope with a number of serious challenges.

Cooperation as an answer

It is difficult to predict man-made accidents, and even more so new drone attacks, but, in any case, greater cooperation between refineries, the Ministry of Energy and large consumers would help to cope with the growing risks. Such a policy implies a common approach to the development of necessary technologies and equipment, combining efforts for the parallel import of components and coordination in providing the domestic market with fuel.

Kondratiev Sergey V. Principal Director on Economic Studies, Head of the Economic Department
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